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| “Among the most important factors that lead individuals to leave their countries and join terrorist groups is the lack of economic and social integration in their countries of origin”. |
In October 2016,
an incredibly important study by the World Bank Group, titled “Economic and
Social Inclusion to Prevent Extremism in the Middle East,” was released. The study
seems to be dismantling a set of misperceptions in the media about the fact
that ISIS fighters are the byproduct of illiteracy and absence of education in
the populations of the region. The study was presented by Dr. Marwa Sobhi
Montaser, the Assistant Lecturer at Faculty of Economics and Political Science,
Cairo University. The study relied on leaked data for ISIS fighters to identify
their personal characteristics and features, focusing on the economic and
social dimensions associated with extremism after being discussed by many
studies from a security point of view. The study also consists of two parts:
the economic background of violent extremism in the Middle East, and prevention
of extremism from an economic perspective.
Economic
Conditions of the Middle East:
The study is
based on a basic premise: “Among the most important factors that lead
individuals to leave their countries and join terrorist groups is the lack of
economic and social integration in their countries of origin”. In order to
ascertain the validity of this hypothesis, the study assessed the economic
conditions of countries in the region and concluded that there is a situation
of economic deterioration experienced by these countries with the following
most significant features:
1.
GDP decline:
GDP growth is expected to fall to the lowest level in the Middle East for 2016,
which is the lowest level since 2013 that reached 2.3%. In general, weak growth
in Middle Eastern countries is due to austerity measures by governments,
including a reduction in public and capital spending to counter financial
revenues after oil prices fall. This comes at a time when conflicts and wars
are in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, and of course pushing the influx of
refugees from conflict countries onto the budgets of neighboring countries.
2.
Low Economic
Growth: Growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to remain steady at
2.3% in 2016. Growth rates may improve slightly as a result of economic reforms
by some countries, such as: raising energy subsidies and reducing the
proportion of those enrolled in public sector jobs, reduction of wages, privatization
of state-owned companies and diversification of financial revenues away from
oil through direct and indirect taxes, but they remain weak compared to the
years before 2011.
On the other
hand, Oil-importing countries in the region were affected by terrorist attacks,
the indirect effects of conflicts in the region and the decline in financial
flows from abroad. In addition, financial and external deficits are expected to
remain high in those countries. Egypt and Tunisia face low returns on tourism, financial
transfers and flows with tightening financial and monetary policy that would
lead to lower growth rates and higher inflation at the end of this year. In
addition, Morocco's economy, which is heavily dependent on the agricultural
sector, has also seen poor growth in 2016 drop by 1.5% from 4.5% last year due
to drought. Growth in Jordan and Lebanon will remain weak due to the impact of
war in Syria and Iraq and the decline in remittances from abroad workers.
3.
The Improvement
in Iran's Economic Situation: In contrast
to the economic situation in the rest of the region, Iran's economic growth
rate is expected to rise to 4.3% in 2016, more than 4 times of its growth last
year, benefiting from the increase in oil production equal to 3.7 million
barrels.
The rest of the countries of the region suffered from wars. The war destroyed the Syrian economy, production shrank between 50 and 60%, the lira lost 80% of its value and population decreased by 23%. About 12.4 million were forcibly displaced internally and externally.
Economic
Analysis of Extremism:
The study links
the economic causes with the emergence of violent extremism. A leaked ISIS
database showed that there are from 3,803 foreign recruits. This database includes
personal information such as age, education, skills, knowledge of religious
teachings and country of residence. CTC 2016 finds that the data covers the
period from early 2013 to late 2014.
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| The study links the economic causes with the emergence of violent extremism. |
The study also
relied on other data, such as analysis of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP
per capita, human development index, unemployment rates, population size and
political rights, as well as opinion polls such as the Arab Barometer, Gallup
Polls and the Global Survey of Values. These data was analyzed, and it was
concluded that the factors most relevant to the accession of foreign
individuals to ISIS are their economic and social inclusion in their countries
of origin. Thus, the promotion of integration level does not only reduce the
level of violent extremism, but it also improves economic performance in the
region. Accordingly, the most appropriate approach to analyze violent extremism
is the economic approach, which assumes that there is an offer and demand for
violent extremists. The individual decides to join the terrorist group after
balancing the cost and the return. Usually, the cost is not only financial, but
it can also include a cost from a family perspective. Similarly, for return
accounts that do not require that the individual focus solely on the financial
aspect, he may also focus on achieving non-monetary benefits, such as a sense
of responsibility or a message of terrorist organization. It is an alternative
to financial compensation, which is critical for organizations in financial
distress, as Al-Qaeda recruits were paying for the training they received.
Characteristics of ISIS Fighters:
After analyzing
the above data, the study concluded that Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey and Egypt are
among the most countries that export foreign recruits to Syria and Iraq. Among
the first non-Muslim countries are Russia, France and Germany, and a set of
characteristics linked to foreign fighters:
1.
Lower Age Group:
The average age of the recruited individual is 27.4, the youngest is from
Libya, 23.7 years old, while the oldest is from Indonesia 33.5 years old, which
indicates that the focus is on attracting younger people.
2.
High Level of Education:
Regarding the level of formal education for recruits, it is clear that 43.3% of
them received secondary education, while only 25.4% received university
education, 15% left education before reaching secondary level and 2% of the sample
has no education.Moreover, the level of educational attainment of foreign
fighters from the Middle East, North Africa and East Asia is higher than that
of their native counterparts, unlike foreign recruits from Western countries
whose educational level is far below their national people’s level.
3.
Job Choices: It
was found that 1.9% of foreign recruits prefer to work in administrative
positions, 17.2% prefer to work as fighters, and 11.7% prefer to engage in
suicidal attacks.
In terms of the
relationship between the quality of their work and the area of origin, the
largest proportion of sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia favor
administrative work, while Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia
produce the largest proportion of suicide bombers. The study also shows that
recruits who were unemployed in their countries of origin or who were in the
armies of their own countries are most likely to choose the profession of
suicide bombers.
In general, the
economic factor may be a motivation to join ISIS. It may also be
counterproductive, as the individual may withdraw from going there, given his
low economic level and the high cost of travelling there.
The author is Mohamed
Arabi, an academic and an independent researcher on security and
counterterrorism policy. He previously worked as the executive editor for the
Egyptian Al-Bawaba Newspaper as well as a regular analyst and contributor to
many media outlets. Follow his insightful works on this blog @Egyptian_Times
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